The Collingwood Group Mortgage Industry Outlook Report

gI_123945_March report cover page

March 2015

“In our March survey, mortgage industry professionals said that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be doing more risk sharing transactions to spur the private securitization market, and they are worried that keeping Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in conservatorship is causing private capital to abandon the mortgage lending space. Furthermore, they told us it is highly unlikely that GSE reform will occur during the Obama Administration. They also indicated that the new Congress could take steps to modify the Dodd-Frank Consumer Protection Act, to dial back onerous regulations in order to encourage mortgage lending.”

“94 percent of survey respondents said there is either a zero percent chance (60 percent of respondents) or less than 25 percent chance (34% of respondents) that GSE reform will happen under this Administration. Survey respondents indicated that housing finance reform is not a priority for the Obama Administration and as long as the GSEs are returning steady profits to the Treasury, there will be no incentive to reform them. One anonymous respondent said, “An unanticipated market disruption or a draw request from a GSE to the treasury would likely be needed as a catalyst to achieve reform in this Administration.” As a result, Collingwood does not expect GSE reform to happen until well after 2017.”

I must be in the 6% believing reform will happen – I love rooting for the underdog!


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